The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
'We face the risk of remaining a low-income country for a very long time unless something changes in the next few years.' 'Instead of constantly talking about becoming a developed economy, we need to start fixing the problems of the economy one by one.' 'There is so much potential, and we are squandering away the opportunity.'
We'll need to wait a couple of years to see how many restructured loans turn bad and whether some banks fall victim to their obsession for growth, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Mining conglomerate Vedanta Limited has received approvals from the majority of its creditors for a proposed demerger of businesses, marking an important step in the company's plan to split into six independent listed companies. "I am happy to let all of you know that we have received the 52 per cent plus the additional percentage, which is required for us to reach 75 per cent. "We have crossed that threshold as well. Most of the lenders have approved it," a senior Vedanta executive said in a recent bondholder conference call.
Simplifying investment policies at the micro level and introducing a time-bound framework will be critical for India's growth targets, notes Krishna Ella.
The Budget assumes significance as it comes on the back of lower-than-expected growth numbers during the second quarter and geopolitical uncertainty.
In FY24 alone, 1.34 million fraud cases were reported, amounting to losses of Rs 1,087 crore.
The United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), an umbrella body of nine unions, on Tuesday gave a call for a two-day strike from March 15 to protest against the proposed privatisation of two state-owned lenders. In the Union Budget presented last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the privatisation of two Public Sector Banks (PSBs) as part of its disinvestment plan. The government has already privatised IDBI Bank by selling its majority stake in the lender to LIC in 2019 and merged 14 public sector banks in the last four years.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
The government on Saturday announced a host of measures such as setting up of a new Fund of Funds Scheme (FFS) with Rs 10,000 crore corpus; and extension of period of incorporation by five years with a view to promote growth of budding entrepreneurs.
The Union finance ministry will meet CEOs of public sector banks to discuss issues related to cybersecurity in the wake of the Rs 820 crore (Rs 8.2 billion) fraud that hit Kolkata-based UCO Bank last month.
'Till the BJP does not understand Kejriwal they cannot win Delhi.'
The finance ministry is in favour of extending the August deadline for public sector banks (PSBs) as well as insurance companies to increase their minimum public shareholding (MPS) to the mandated 25 per cent, said a senior government official. "The election results will determine the course of action. "Most likely, those who did not receive an extension to meet the minimum shareholding norm will be granted one," the senior government official said.
'The BJP has killed public anger. They have killed people's self-respect.'
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
A day after the RBI put in public domain a draft scheme of merger of Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB) with subsidiary of Singapore-based DBS, public sector banks' officer union AIBOC on Wednesday said the amalgamation is not in the national interest and demanded the consolidation with any PSB. The proposed amalgamation of the cash-strapped LVB with DBS Bank India seems to be a ploy to provide entry of foreign banks into the country in a big way, All India Bank Officers' Confederation (AIBOC) president Sunil Kumar said. The Indian banking sector provides huge opportunity for growth, so the foreign banks have been looking at inorganic route to expand their presence for long, he said.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday said the fiscal-monetary coordination was at its best during the last six years even as he thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for giving the opportunity to head the monetary authority of the country. Das, in a series of posts on X, on his last day of his six-year term as RBI Governor, also thanked the Finance Minister, various stakeholders and his colleagues at the central bank.
The drop in net interest margin will separate the men from the boys, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
As many as 8.5 lakh bank employees are set to benefit from the wage hike, which will be effective from November 2017.
Budget 2025-26 delivers a carefully calibrated strategy-stimulating demand and investment while keeping fiscal discipline intact. In an environment marked by global trade disruptions, and a softening in urban consumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has taken a measured approach.
Perhaps because the Modi government had some differences of opinion with two of the economist governors (one of whom was appointed by the Manmohan Singh government), there is a view that its political leadership prefers a civil servant to head the RBI, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The government on Friday doubled the limit of Mudra loan amount under the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) to Rs 20 lakh from Rs 10 lakh under a new 'Tarun Plus' category to promote entrepreneurship in the country.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
'During his stint as prime minister, he got 270 million people out of poverty.' 'This, according to the World Bank, is the fastest compression of poverty anywhere in the world.' Arvind Mayaram, the former finance secretary, recalls his encounters with Dr Manmohan Singh.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, mainly on account of poor showing by the manufacturing and services sector, according to government data released on Tuesday. The gross domestic product (GDP) rate of 6.4 per cent will be the lowest since the Covid year (2020-21) when the country witnessed a negative growth of 5.8 per cent.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Alloting more funds for MNREGA and PM-KISAN could wipe out the entire additional money that the Centre may have for FY25.
Equity fundraising through qualified institutional placements (QIPs) has gained traction, thanks to supportive equity markets and the need for fresh fundraising to meet capital expenditure (capex) requirements.
The monthly Rs 2500 payment for poor women is expected to cost Rs 11,000 crore while the pension scheme of Rs 2000 for every senior citizen will cost around Rs 4100 crore. The Yamuna clean up will cost over Rs 10,000 crore while a similar amount is required to upgrade Delhi's hospitals. Ultimately, the new BJP government will have no choice but to ask the centre for financial support, notes Rashme Sehgal.
That's the only way to convince those who have money to return to the bank fold, ditching other asset classes, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In the months immediately following the 2024 tragedy, reporting on the landslide per se had been a straightforward affair. On one side was death and destruction. On the other side, survivors and the business of survival. It was black and white. What direction to take was clear. Rehabilitation in comparison, felt like a complex situation. One that is fraught with shades of grey. As grey as human life, explains Shyam G Menon.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
More than 50 per cent of SIP accounts come from semi-urban and rural areas.
'Suddenly we had a new comprehension of affairs, which reminded that the luxury of politics floated atop a foundation by economics.' 'Along with this, finance ministers became crucial in molding the perception and reputation of Union Cabinets.' 'Governments couldn't afford a wrong person in that portfolio,' asserts Shyam G Menon.
Partha Pratim Sengupta, who will be taking charge as the MD & CEO of Bandhan Bank in early November, has his task cut out. The Kolkata-based lender, which converted itself from a microfinance institution to a universal bank, is in its 10th year of operation. The bank was able to cut down the share of the micro loan book over these years.
Currently, banks are closed every second and fourth Saturday of a month. Why shouldn't they be shut every Saturday? When most customers carry their banks in their pocket (the app on the mobile phone), there is no need to keep banks open on Saturdays, argues Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Unprecedented bribery charges, farewells, separation, failed union, monumental mergers and record-breaking IPOs, along with a healthy dose of online happenings in the form of spat and lessons in customer care, corporate India saw it all in 2024.
Balance-level delinquencies in the credit card segment saw a 17 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in the quarter ending June 2024 (Q1FY25). In all other credit segments, including personal loans, delinquencies declined even as retail credit growth moderated, consequent to banks tightening the supply of credit to the unsecured segments, a report by TransUnion CIBIL said on Monday. Data shows that balance-level delinquencies, measured in terms of 90 days or more past due, in the credit card segment stood at 1.8 per cent in Q1FY25- highest among all other credit segments.
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